Gipuzkoa Provincial Council assesses the Territory's exposure to landslides under climate change scenarios
20/02/2025
The study by the Department of Environment and Hydraulic Works, carried out in the first phase of the LIFE IP Urban Klima 2050 project, has developed susceptibility and hazard maps identifying the most vulnerable areas.
Gipuzkoa Provincial Council has published a report analysing the Territory's exposure to landslides and flows under climate change scenarios. The study is part of action A.2 Extending climate risk analysis in the Basque Country within the LIFE IP Urban Klima 2050 project and has been carried out during the first phase of the project.
The study has taken into account historical data and climate projections covering periods from 2011 to 2100. Based on these projections, the analysis has developed susceptibility and hazard maps identifying the most vulnerable areas of the territory.
To understand the impact of these landslides, the report assesses areas according to their proximity to high risk zones. Despite the complexity of establishing a definitive hazard map, a qualitative risk analysis has been carried out, providing a glimpse of the potentially most exposed areas. The findings highlight that a sharp increase in hazard is expected in the short term with stabilisation in the following decades in the RCP 8.5 scenario (the highest reference emissions scenario).
Proposals for the future
Given the methodological challenges and the limited data available, the report suggests several lines of work for the future. The creation of an inventory of landslides specific to Gipuzkoa would enable a more precise analysis to be carried out. The development of susceptibility maps with the collaboration of a multidisciplinary team is also recommended, as well as improving the resolution of current climate models and developing detailed mapping of soil thickness.
Finally, the report suggests replacing the current analysis algorithm with one based on neural networks, which would significantly improve the accuracy of the results. These recommendations seek to provide Gipuzkoa with more precise and updated tools to address the effects of climate change and therefore contribute towards the territory’s resilience and safety.
